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AT&T 1Q24 Upgrade Step Down

May 9, 2024 - As we wrote last month, 1Q24 was the first full quarter of reduced AT&T upgrades due to its shift from 30 to 36-month financing. AT&T reported record low upgrades highlighting the meaningful size of subscribers unwilling to upgrade with an outstanding balance. With AT&T's financing transition lasting through May 2024, we have lowered our 2Q24 estimates and slightly increased our 4Q24 expectations, anticipating some pent-up demand. Verizon's premium smartphone 36-month transition begins in August 2024, and we have lowered our 2H24 forecasts. We are curious to see if Verizon's transition timing, coinciding with major Android and iOS releases, results in less impact as subscribers may be more willing to pay off balances to get the latest newly launched device.

New Era for Pixel and Android

 May 9, 2024 - In April, Google appointed Rick Osterloh to lead Pixel hardware and Android & Chrome ecosystem development. This aligns Android development closer to the Apple model of a single vision for integrating hardware, software, AI, and services. Google's internal hardware efforts will be instrumental in accelerating Android's AI development as Google shifts from a search-first company to an AI-first company. While pledging to maintain "firewalls" between Android OEM partners, we view this reorganization as Google rightly prioritizing AI software and ecosystem innovations over potential OEM partner hardware innovations. In the near term, Android will try to reclaim market share in 3Q24 by leveraging AI features and earlier releases of the Samsung Z Series 6 and Pixel 9s. 

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BayStreet Research is a boutique firm with over two decades of experience providing data, in-depth research, and actionable insights on the U.S. smartphone, tablet, and smartwatch markets.

BayStreet delivers a holistic view of the U.S. wireless market and provides clients the "why" behind trends faster than other research firms.  BayStreet helps carriers, OEMs, component suppliers, and investors wanting to drive business results.

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