iPhone 15's One Two Punch
November 9, 2023 - Ahead of the iPhone 15 launch, the iPhone 11 install base expanded by roughly 40% over last year’s comparable n-4 group, offering a significant upgrade opportunity for the new release. Thus, when early iPhone 15 trends showed a ~30% y/y increase in base iPhone 15 vs base iPhone 14 sales and when our app data analysis indicated substantial iPhone 11 user upgrades, we believed the iPhone 15 cycle was well positioned to grow due to non-Pro sales. However, as the preordered iPhone 15 Pro series began to ship in late October, we have tracked above-average Pro series trends. With this momentum continuing into early November, we now believe the iPhone 15 series is benefiting from the upgrading of two large bases, the four-year-old "holdout" iPhone 11 users and the "early 5G" and "record promotion" three-year-old iPhone 12 base.
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Opportunity and Preparedness Meet for Motorola
November 9, 2023 - Motorola seized the opportunity when LG withdrew from the US smartphone market in 2021, successfully increasing its prepaid market share with the G Stylus and Moto G series across carriers. Now, as Samsung prioritizes its high-end market share and reduces its prepaid offerings to a single A14/A15 model, it opens the path for Motorola to capture even more market share. Motorola stands out in the prepaid space with a stronger brand than its competitors, except for Apple and Samsung, and boasts the most innovative lineup, featuring large batteries, stylus devices, and now flip phones. Additionally, Motorola's revival in the postpaid market with the Razr series will likely improve its brand further. With the end of pandemic-related supply issues, Motorola is well-positioned for continued growth.
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