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Smartphone, Tablet and Smartwatch Research
BayStreet Research provides timely primary research on the U.S. and Western European smartphone, tablet, and connected smartwatch markets. Using a proprietary methodology refined over more than fifteen years, BayStreet collects and maintains the premier database of mobile device sell-through data with rolling six month forecasts, and retail and wholesale pricing at the SKU level. Leveraging this data and our deep network of industry contacts, we provide unique insights and competitive intelligence on the smartphone industry, allowing our clients to truly understand the "why" behind the numbers.
Research Highlights
Sell-through quantities by:
- Carrier
- OEM
- SKU
- Device type (smartphone, tablet, wearable)
- Sale type (postpaid, prepaid)
- Smartphone OS
- Wholesale and retail price
- Components (e.g., dual cameras) and other device characteristics (e.g., bezel size)
Installed base estimates
Six-month rolling forecasts by SKU
Apple, Samsung, HTC, LG, BlackBerry, Sony, Lenovo, Google, Microsoft, Alcatel, Huawei, ZTE, and Coolpad
Insights into the Smartphone, Tablet, and Connected Smartwatch Industries
Looming Q2 Weakness
1Q18’s relatively healthy smartphone activations benefited from an earlier Samsung Galaxy S9 launch y/y and a full Q of iPhone X sales. With less aggressive promotions, an elongating upgrade cycle and limited device launches, we are tracking 2Q18 postpaid sales down ~8% y/y and the total market down ~6%. Read More
Samsung Note 8 Cannibalization
April Samsung Note 8 volumes were down 70-80% from pre Samsung Galaxy S9 launch levels. We believe the minimal differentiation between the Samsung Galaxy S9+ and Samsung Note 8 (S-Pen only) have driven the slightly less expensive Samsung Galaxy S9+ to considerably cannibalize the Samsung Note 8. This compares to Samsung Note 5 cannibalization of 50-60% from the Samsung Galaxy S7s. Read More
Apple's Fall Lineup
With our initial 3Q18 forecasts, we estimate the cheaper ($700) LCD variant will make up ~50% of flagship sales vs the iPhone X2 (~20%/$900) and X2P (~30%/$1,100). Combined with the existing higher ASP portfolio, we forecast Apple’s 3Q18 US ASPs up 18% y/y to ~$780 from ~$670. Read More
Samsung Galaxy S9 Woes
Samsung Galaxy S9 WoesSimilar to Apple’s 4Q17 weakness, GS9 sales appear limited by a shift in carrier promotional focus, EIP’s elongation of the upgrade cycle beyond two-years and mild cumulative product innovation. We are tracking GS9 national carrier preorders down 35-40% vs the GS8 and are therefore lowering our GS9 unit forecasts from down 5-10% to down 15-20% vs the GS8 through June. Demand at T-Mobile is stronger than the other national carriers, due in part to a lower price for the GS9 ($720), allowing the smaller variant to avoid a down payment. While launch day (3/16) promotions for the GS9 can still improve trends beyond our forecast, our initial view of the GS9s benefiting from upgrading a large GS7 base is now more than outweighed by weak US smartphone trends. Read More
Increasing Signs of Price Elasticity
As consumer awareness of smartphone pricing has grown, we increasingly see signs of price elasticity. Our first indication was with the iPhone X in 4Q17, where non-enthusiasts were unwilling even to entertain the thought of a $1,000 smartphone. With the GS9 launch, we hear the combination of increased price, coupled with only mild innovation, is limiting upgrades. However, one of the more surprising signs of elasticity is T-Mobile’s outperformance vs the other national carriers with only a slight $80 discount on the full price of the GS9. Interestingly, the $80 discount, which allows the base variant to avoid a down payment, is also driving a higher mix of base variant sales at T-Mobile vs the other carriers. Read More
Lowering 1H18 iPhone X Expectations
While our overall iPhone estimates for the 1H18 remain unchanged, we are reducing iPhone X mix due to a weaker than expected sales increase from a fully supplied iPhone X in mid-December. In late Dec, we tracked stronger than expected sales of the discounted (BOGO) iPhone 8/8P and iPhone 7/7P. We surprisingly found slight iPhone 8/8P supply constraints across carriers and indications of mass market consumers’ lack of appreciation for the iPhone X’s distinguishing features. We believe the BOGO iPhone 8/8P promos likely exacerbated the only mildly promoted iPhone X weakness, but none the less view the fully supplied iPhone X’s lack of increased traction as a sign its form factor and $1,000+ price could be a harder sell with non-enthusiast buyers in the 1H18. We feel Apple is primarily competing with itself, and believe its loyal consumers are satisfied choosing between the different iPhone price points and see little sign of Android competition slowing iPhone sales. Read More
BayStreet Research in the News
Your Love of Your Old Smartphone Is a Problem for Apple and Samsung
"U.S. consumers, spurred by two-year carrier contracts and phone subsidies, were upgrading every 23 months as recently as 2014, according to BayStreet Research LLC, which tracks device sales. Now, people are holding onto their phones for an extra eight months. By next year, the time gap is estimated to widen to 33 months, BayStreet says." See Article or Read More
The Samsung Galaxy S9 might not be the switching event carriers had hoped for
"BayStreet Research reported that GS9 preorders among the nationwide carriers are down 35% to 40% when compared with similar preorder sales for last year’s Samsung GS8. The firm said that, as a result, it will lower its GS9 sales forecasts to as much as 20% below the sales that Samsung generated last year via its GS8. BayStreet closely tracks the sale of smartphones in the United States." Read More
Unlocked Phones Are Booming in the US, But 1 Company Dominates
"BayStreet Research... finds that while unlocked phone sales are booming in the US, the most popular handsets are from Samsung.... Samsung's $720 unlocked price for the Galaxy S9, which undercuts all US wireless carriers except T-Mobile, has boosted the unlocked share of the US market from 12 to 14 percent, said BayStreet's founding partner, Cliff Maldonado. Still, that's the biggest shift in the unlocked share of the market we've seen in a few years." Read More
Samsung's Smartphone Business Could Face Some Headwinds
"Samsung’s latest flagship, the Galaxy S9, which was launched in March, appears to be off to a relatively lackluster start. Analysts at BayStreet Research estimated that S9 preorders were down by as much as 40% compared to last year’s Galaxy S8, and the device is already seeing relatively aggressive discounts and promotions from major carriers." Read More
Demand for older-generation phones is spiking
"When two-year carrier contracts were the industry standard in the US, subscribers could sign a two-year contract and get a new smartphone at what appeared to be a highly discounted rate (although later analysis found carriers sometimes recouped those costs by baking them into monthly fees). As of 2014, that cycle was so effective that US consumers were upgrading their smartphones every 23 months, according to BayStreet Research." Read More
Android’s Creator Wants To Shake Up the Smartphone Industry. Again.
"The Phone will be sold directly to consumers, but, according to BayStreet Research, more than 92% of U.S. phone buyers today buy their device through their mobile carrier, so Rubin might have a tough task getting the masses to buy in." Read More
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